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Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) faces \u201cunprecedented\u201d US dollar correlation as new BTC price research gives a $75,000 floor.<\/p>\n In one of his\u00a0latest analyses<\/a> on April 18, network economist Timothy Peterson calculated that BTC\/USD may rise as high as $138,000 within the next three months.<\/p>\n Bitcoin is navigating highly unusual macroeconomic conditions as a result of the ongoing US trade war<\/a>, but history still offers clues as to where BTC price action may head next.<\/p>\n For Peterson, the US High Yield Index Effective Yield, currently at over 8%, holds the key.<\/p>\n \u201cThis has happened 38 times since 2010 (monthly data),\u201d he summarized.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201c3 months later: Bitcoin was up 71% of the time. The median gain was +31%. If it went lower, the worst loss was -16%.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n With BTC\/USD performance thus skewed to the upside, Peterson gave hope to those waiting for a rematch of all-time highs from January.<\/p>\n \u201cThis likely puts Bitcoin between $75k and $138k within 90 days,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n Bitcoin would need to deliver 62% gains within that period to achieve that maximum level.<\/p>\n As Cointelegraph reported<\/a>, Peterson has been a frequent contributor to BTC price forecasts in 2025, with one of his proprietary tools, Lowest Price Forward, giving 95% odds of a $69,000 floor<\/a> in March.<\/p>\n Turning his attention to the dramatic drop in the US dollar index (DXY) thanks to US trade tariffs, he predicted that its unusual positive correlation with BTC would ultimately end.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin price volatility ‘imminent’ as speculators move 170K BTC \u2014 CryptoQuant<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThis level of BTC-USD correlation is unprecedented.\u00a0The relationship is not causal, but reflective of underlying conditions affecting both,\u201d he explained<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cHistorically inverse, the relationship flipped in 2024 as both assets began responding to the same macro stressors: tightening liquidity, high real rates, and global risk aversion.\u00a0 BTC will decouple and rise when real yields drop + liquidity returns.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n DXY continued to stay below the key 100 mark on April 18, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro<\/a> and TradingView<\/a>, reflecting some of its lowest levels in the past three years.<\/p>\nBTC price probabilities give bulls the upper hand<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin DXY correlation will flip negative<\/h2>\n